What Is the Probability That Trump's Gaza Strip Plan Will Succeed?
The militant group's conditional endorsement of the US president's Gaza agreement last Friday has been received global support and is the closest Israel and Hamas have got in two years toward stopping the fighting within the Gaza Strip.
How Near Is a Deal?
Hamas's qualified acceptance of the US proposal marks the nearest negotiators have got over the last several months to a comprehensive conclusion of the conflict in Gaza. However, they remain distant from a deal.
Trump's multi-point proposal to conclude the war specifies that the group free every captive in three days, surrender ruling power to a cross-border body chaired by the US president, and lay down its weapons. As compensation, Israeli forces would step-by-step pull back its troops from the Gaza Strip and return over 1,000 detainees.
The deal includes a surge of relief supplies to Gaza, some areas of which are experiencing starvation, and reconstruction funds to the region, that has been nearly completely decimated.
Hamas gave consent to three points: the release of every captive, the handing over of power and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza. Hamas stated the remaining parts of the agreement must be discussed together with other Palestinian parties, as it is part of a “collective national stance”.
Effectively, this implies the group seeks further negotiations on the contentious elements of the US plan, specifically the request that it disarms, and a definite timetable regarding Israeli troop pullout.
When and Where Will Talks Occur?
Negotiators have flown to the Egyptian capital to work out specifics to close the divide between Israel and Hamas.
The talks will start tomorrow and are expected to produce conclusions within a few days, whether positive or negative.
The US president posted an image of a map showing Gaza on Saturday night that showed the boundary to which Israeli troops ought to pull back stating if Hamas agreed to the terms, that the ceasefire would start immediately. Donald Trump is keen to end the war as it comes to its two year mark and before the Nobel committee declares the recipient of the peace prize in October, which is a widely known obsession for him.
Benjamin Netanyahu stated an agreement to secure the return of Israeli hostages back home should preferably take place soon.
Which Differences Persist?
The two sides have been cautious their positions entering the talks.
The group has consistently refused to give up its weapons during previous talks. It has provided no word whether its position has shifted on this, even as it principally agrees to the US proposal, with qualifications. Trump and Israel have emphasized that there exists limited flexibility regarding the disarmament demand and are determined to pin Hamas down through firm wording in any agreement moving forward.
The militant faction also said it agreed to handing over power in Gaza to an expert-led administration, as specified in the US proposal. But, in a statement, the militant group clarified it would accept a Gaza-based technocratic governing body, not the international body that Trump laid out in its plan.
Israel has also sought to keep the matter regarding its military pullout vague. Only a few hours following the announcement of Trump’s plan in a joint press conference in the US capital last week, the prime minister released a recording reassuring Israelis that soldiers would stay across much of Gaza.
Last Saturday evening, Netanyahu again repeated that troops would remain inside Gaza, stating that hostages would be released as the Israel Defense Forces would stay within Gaza's interior.
Netanyahu’s position appears to conflict against the requirement in the US proposal that Israeli forces fully withdraw from the territory. Hamas will demand reassurances that Israel will fully withdraw and that if the group surrenders its weapons, Israeli forces will not re-enter Gaza.
Mediators must close these differences, obtaining firm, unambiguous terms on disarmament from the group. They must also show to the faction that the Israeli government will truly pull out from the territory and that there are global assurances that will force the Israeli state to comply with the conditions of the deal.
The disagreements might be resolved, and the US will certainly push both parties to achieve an agreement. Nevertheless, the talks have come near to a deal previously suddenly collapsing multiple times over the last 24 months, making both sides cautious of celebrating prior to a formal agreement.
