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While election run, the former president promised to steer clear of expensive and frequently catastrophic overseas military interventions such as those in Iraq and Afghanistan. This promise was a key component of his isolationist “America first” agenda. But soon after his inauguration, American military units initiated bombings in Yemen and Iran. Turning to the south, Trump threatened to take control of the Panama Canal. Currently, the Pentagon is preparing for potential operations against alleged “terrorist” narco-trafficking organizations within the borders of Colombia and Mexico. Of greatest urgent worry is a possible renewed White House attempt to forcibly impose regime change in Venezuela.

The Venezuelan Reaction and Escalating Tensions

Nicolás Maduro, the nation's socialist authoritarian leader, believes that this campaign is already under way. He alleges that Washington is conducting a covert conflict against his nation following several deadly attacks on Venezuelan vessels in the high seas. The US president last week notified Congress that America is engaged in “armed conflict” with drug cartels. He alleges, without proof, that the attacked vessels transported illegal narcotics bound for the US – and that the Venezuelan leader bears responsibility. The administration has placed a $50m bounty for Maduro’s capture.

Regional nations are nervously watching a major US military buildup around Venezuela, including naval vessels, F-35 fighter jets, an attack submarine and 2,200 marines. These formidable assets are not much use for anti-drug operations. However they could be deployed offensively, or to assist commando operations and airstrikes. Recently, Venezuela alleged Washington of an “illegal incursion” by at least five F-35s. The president says he is readying emergency powers to defend citizens if Venezuela is attacked by the United States.

Analyzing the Reasons For the Moves

What is Trump doing? Narcotics trafficking is a major problem – but taking lives arbitrarily in international waters, although frequent and hard to hold accountable, is still against international law. Moreover, United Nations reports says the majority of the cocaine reaching the US originates in Colombia, Peru and Ecuador, and is mostly not trafficked via Venezuela. Trump, a former draft-dodger, enjoys playing the tough leader. Currently, he is seeking to expel Venezuelan migrants, many of whom previously escaped to the US due to sanctions he previously enforced. Experts propose he covets Venezuela’s vast energy and natural wealth.

Indeed that the president and his former national security adviser, attempted to replace Maduro in 2019 in what Caracas claimed an overthrow attempt. Additionally, the president's recent electoral win was widely condemned as rigged. Given a free choice, Venezuelans would almost certainly remove him. And, clashing ideologies play a role, as well. The leader, unworthy heir to his predecessor's socialist movement, is offensive to the president's dominant vision of a US-dominated western hemisphere, where the historic policy rules again and free-market capitalism operates without restraint.

Lack of Clear Strategy

Yet given his inept blundering in other major international matters, the most likely reason for the president's behavior is that, as usual, he lacks understanding what he’s doing – regarding Caracas or the region as a whole. No strategy exists. He acts aggressively, takes rash misjudgments, fans fears of foreigners and forms policies based on if he approves of other leaders. Previously, with Maduro on the ropes, Trump blinked. Today, full-scale military intervention in the country remains unlikely. More probable is an intensified campaign of coercion involving destabilization, penalties, naval attacks, and aerial and special forces operations.

Instead of undermining and marginalizing Maduro's government, the US could bring about the exact opposite. The president is already using the situation to assume dictatorial emergency authority and mobilize popular support behind patriotic calls for unity. The president's aggression towards other socialist regional nations – like Colombia – and presumptuous support for conservative populists from Argentina and El Salvador – is spurring pushback across the continent, too. Most governments abhor the thought of a reversion to the bad old days of Yanqui meddling in the hemisphere.

Regional Reaction and Diplomatic Setbacks

Trump’s effort to use punitive tariffs and sanctions to strong-arm Brazil to pardoning its disgraced hard-right leader Jair Bolsonaro failed dramatically last month. Huge crowds took to the streets of Brazilian cities to defend what they rightly saw as an assault on Brazilian sovereignty and legal principles. The popularity of the new president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, increased. “We are not, and never again will we be, a dependent state,” he stated. Lula told the US president, in effect, to get lost. Later, at their meeting during the United Nations general assembly, the American leader retreated and was conciliatory.

The perception of a great leap backwards in US-Latin America ties grows inevitably. The White House views Latin America mainly as a danger, associating it with drug trafficking, organised crime and immigration,” an analyst cautioned earlier this year. “The US approach is essentially negative, prioritizing independent moves and dominance instead of cooperation,” she said, noting: Latin America is viewed not as a peer and more as a sphere of influence to be controlled in line with American goals.”

Hawkish Officials and Rising Rhetoric

The president's hawkish aides contribute to the issue: notably Stephen Miller, administration deputy chief of staff, and Marco Rubio, a former lawmaker from Florida who is secretary of state and national security adviser. For Rubio, a longtime opponent of leftwing governments in Cuba and Nicaragua, the Venezuelan leader is unfinished business. Defending the boat attacks, he declared: “Interdiction are ineffective. What will stop them is when you blow them up … And it’ll happen again.” From the top US diplomat, these are strong words.

Future Implications

The president's attempts to revive the role of regional neighbourhood policeman, copying former president Theodore Roosevelt – an interventionist frequent meddler – are regressive, dangerous and self-defeating. Long-term, the main beneficiary will probably be Beijing, an increasingly influential player, economic partner and key participant of the Brics group countries. While America severs ties globally, the administration is making China rise in influence.